Nov 032012

The valuation low we are looking for is imminent.  If you haven’t read my Post-Earnings Analysis where I laid out the parameters for where to expected this low to occur, go read it now.  It contains the evidence of why CPE 13.4 was probably not going to hold, and why a low should be expected in the area of CPE 12.6 to CPE 13.0.  Well, we are now here.  We are exactly at CPE 13.0 as of the end of the day Friday.  These levels can best be seen visually on the Daily CPE Chart.

Ideally, this coming week we will continue down to the CPE 12.6 area, and reverse hard.  I can imagine there are a lot of stops just below last quarter’s low at 570.  Taking out that level, triggering a bunch of stops, and then reversing hard, would be the most ideal scenario.  But really, a bottom anywhere in this area would be fine.

So what’s next?  What can we expect after we put in this imminent bottom?  You’re probably thinking, “We go back to the valuation range high!”, right?  You might think we’re going to head straight back to 700.  Well, not so fast.  And I mean that literally.  While we will indeed eventually go back to the valuation range high, it won’t be anytime soon.  It won’t be this year, and it won’t be this quarter (before next earnings announcement).  That will have to wait until next quarter.  How do I know that?  Because AAPL has never traveled from the valuation range low to the valuation range high in the same quarter.  Look for yourself at the past two years on the Valuation Range Chart.  The valuation range low in Nov 2011 didn’t result in a move to the valuation range high until March 2012, well into the next quarter.  The valuation range low in May 2012 didn’t result in a move to the valuation range high until September 2012, again well into the next quarter.  I’ve gone back several years.  Never, after trading near the 1-year valuation range low has AAPL rallied to the valuation range high in the same quarter.

You might say to me, “But after Nov 2012, AAPL did make new highs in early Jan.”  And I would reply reminding you that you should be looking at the valuation range channel, not price alone.  It’s the valuation range that matters!  AAPL only quickly moves to a previous price high quickly during a quarter where earnings growth is strong and the slope of the CPE lines are steep.  In such a quarter, price does need to continue rising quickly just to keep up with CPE valuation.  And while it’s rising quickly in price, it is making little headway within the valuation range channel.  The rally off the Nov 2011 low was such a situation.  Go look at that again on the Valuation Range Chart.  And then notice that we don’t have those conditions this year.

OK, now that we’ve dispelled with the expectation of returning to 700 quickly, what can we expect?  In short, we can expect AAPL to trade the rest of the year in the lower portion of the valuation range.  In other words, expect this whole quarter to be a low valuation quarter.  Look at the Daily CPE Chart, and review what happened after the May low, as an example.  AAPL rallied quickly off the CPE 12.6 level, but ran into strong resistance at CPE 14.0.  It spent several weeks bumping up against that valuation resistance level before finally pushing through, up to CPE 14.6.  That’s roughly what I expect to happen again this time.

After we see where the bottom occurs, we can talk more about what CPE levels may define the trading range for the rest of the year.  As an initial rough estimate, the expectation should be for price to largely remain within the CPE 13.4 to 14.0 area for most or all of the rest of the year, with peaks no higher than the CPE 14.6 area.  We can fine tune that expectation after we see where the bottom occurs and how the first rally off that bottom looks.  I’ll also provide more evidence as to why we should expect valuation levels to remain under pressure the rest of the year.  While it is true that almost anything is possible, and anything can indeed happen, we are most interested in what is most probable.  What we expect should be what is most probable.

Update 11/7: Nothing has Changed

The scenario laid out above is continuing as described.  Today we closed almost exactly at CPE 12.6.  This is the valuation level area that makes the most sense to put in a low.  Read the 2nd paragraph above that starts with “Ideally….”  So far so good.  Now let’s see if we can reverse hard from this valuation level.  Everything would be so much tidier on the AAPL chart if the scenario continues as expected.  If instead the May low gets taken out, everything gets a lot more complicated, technically.  We want to see AAPL hold valuation levels that make sense.  That makes what comes next this quarter easier to follow, and the expectations for the move to the valuation range high next year easier as well.

Update 11/8:  The Crash Scenario

Things have changed after today.  AAPL has made a new 3 year P/E low, a new 6-month CPE low, and matched the 1-year Price/Cash low.  And there is evidence of panic and forced selling.  Under such conditions, valuation range levels have to be set aside for the very short term (hours and days).  At least partially (more on that below).  That’s because what is taking over with the price action are things like emotion, crowd psychology, and technical analysis.

There is a rumor that hedge funds are in a mode of forced selling of AAPL due to having too much leverage in their “safe” AAPL investment.  That means this would be like the financial crisis forced selling due to over leveraged positions, except this time it’s just in AAPL.  This narrative makes sense to me.  And it is consistent with the price action.  AAPL is now down 7 consecutive weeks.  AAPL has only done that 3 times in its history:  1993, 1996, 2000.  So this price action is truly extraordinary.  It doesn’t really matter whether the rumor is true or not.  The price action is not based on sane trading activity.

Historical valuation levels can still be useful in this environment.  But we need to go back farther than 1 year to find valuation levels to use here.  During the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, AAPL crashed to bargain basement valuation levels.  You can see the P/E levels from that time period on the P/E Range Chart.  I have a CPE Range Chart similar to that which is not on my site.  That shows me that the CPE low from November 2008 was 11.4, and the CPE low from January 2009 was 10.4.  Those were truly bargain basement valuation levels.  If AAPL continues in its forced liquidation crash, those valuation levels may prove useful as a comparison to where we may be headed.  Those levels have been added to the Valuation Range Chart for reference.  I’m not saying we’re heading for CPE 10.4.  I include those levels so we can see where current valuation is relative to past panic extremes.

Good luck everyone.  If the May low gets taken out, this is going to get interesting.

Update 11/9:  Crash Scenario Update

This is a quick update to the above.  I think the crash scenario is likely off the table.  You never want to bet on a crash.  But I felt that after Thursday, I should at least lay out those lower valuations on the chart so we had context of the risk if Friday had continued with the accelerating selling.  It is a very good thing that the May lows did not get taken out.  It will be far easier to navigate the rest of the year and early next year with the low that we currently have in place.  Nothing is proven yet.  Read my next post for more info on that.  This post will end here.

Oct 262012

Apple earnings was less than expected. The charts have been updated to reflect the new valuation levels. You’ll notice the CPE levels have come down for the quarter just passed because of the new reality.

New valuation levels means new expectations for the  fall valuation low.  It is clear from the Valuation Range Chart that AAPL is trading in the lower portion of its one-year valuation range.  The Quarterly P/E Range Chart also shows the same conclusion.  Even though AAPL is at a low valuation, it has not yet dropped to the one-year valuation lows.

Let’s look at where the six-month, one-year, and two-year valuation lows have been, and where those valuation levels are now as a guide.  These can all be seen on the CPE Two-Year Chart, specifically:

  • CPE 13.4:  Represents the July low.  Earnings expectations are now lower than they were then, so I fully expect we will visit that level.  (Update 10/29:  The day after earnings we did indeed visit that level and bounced hard into the close.  The CPE 13.4 level is providing our first evidence of buying interest at that valuation.  A short term rally could develop from this level.  I expect this valuation level to eventually fail, and a lower valuation level to be seen before year end).
  • CPE 13.0:  Represents important bottoms from 2011.  This valuation level may hold.  It should be watched as a general area where buyers may come in to buy AAPL in large numbers.  AAPL may put in a bottom at this valuation level.
  • CPE 12.6:  Represents the level of the May 2012 low.  This is the most important bottom in 2012 so far.  It would be reasonable to expect AAPL to put in a low at a similar valuation level as the May low.
  • CPE 11.8:  Represents the lowest CPE level of the past year, from late 2011.  I do not expect this level to be seen this year.  Here’s why.  The late 2011 valuation level only became that low a valuation after the January earnings results were announced.  They were a blowout, higher than anyone expected.  It caused the CPE line connecting the Oct and Jan earnings announcement to be increased at a larger slope than when price was trading during the quarter.  Therefore investors and traders in December did not realize at the time that price had declined to a new record low of CPE 11.8.  That was only evident in retrospect.  Therefore I consider the CPE 11.8 a valuation level a “We’re not going there” line on my charts.

It is important to notice that the CPE valuation lines are increasing.  AAPL can make a lower valuation low and yet not make a lower price low.  It’s possible, especially if the valuation low is made later in the quarter.  So keep that in mind.  We’re analyzing valuation here.  Valuation changes over time, increasing every day according to our principle of Continuous Valuation.

Again, probably the most important two charts to track these levels going forward is my Valuation Range Chart and the Daily CPE Chart.  They show all the levels mentioned above and where price currently is within the range.

Oct 132012

AAPL is in correction territory, down over 10% from the highs just 3 short weeks ago.  Here at AAPL Beat we evaluate AAPL valuation based on our own concept of Continuous P/E (CPE).  Please refer to the AAPL Valuation Page if you’re not familiar with CPE.  So where might we expect AAPL to bottom?  Where will value investors come in to buy?  At what price will enough buyers come in and say, “OK, this price is a deal.  I want AAPL at this price” and cause AAPL to bottom?  Well, as it turns out, recently AAPL has put in a bottom near similar CPE valuation levels.

The Jun 2011 bottom at 310.50 was at CPE 13.0.
The Oct 2011 bottom at 354.24 was at CPE 13.0.
The Nov 2011 bottom at  363.32 was at CPE 12.0.
The May 2012 bottom at 522.18 was at CPE 12.6.
The Jul 2012 bottom at 570.00 was at CPE 13.4.

Refer to the CPE Chart to see these levels visually on a two year chart.  So bottoms have been in the range of CPE 12.0 to 13.4, with the most two bottoms in 2012 at CPE 12.6 in May and CPE 13.4 in July.  If AAPL puts in a bottom near the same valuation level as one of the previous bottoms, where would that be?  Well, CPE levels change every day, ever increasing because earnings are rising every day according to our concept of continuous valuation.  So the best way to see where these levels are now and during the fall is on a price chart:

Refer to the Daily CPE Chart for a closeup view of recent months and the next couple months.  The CPE 12.6 and 13.4 levels are drawn with a light red line.  That is the general area where a low can be expected during the fall months.

Jul 242012

Well THAT wasn’t expected.  Apple today reported earnings far below estimates, and also far below what the statistical model said was probable.  Make no mistake.  This wasn’t a miss related to inconsistent analyst estimates, such as we had October 2011, due to overly optimistic analysis by analysts.  That’s what the model is intended to detect and report.  No, this quarter was not such a miss.  This was a miss entirely attributable to Apple itself.  And it was a miss that was outside anything typical of Apple over the past 8 years.

I use data going back 8 years as part of the statistical analysis, and there has been nothing like this earnings report in all that time, not even during the financial crisis.  This was outside the normal expectation on earnings by such an extent that it made the standard deviation calculation jump up for use going forward.  Additional data is always good, as it will allow the model to be more accurate.

The model can’t protect against the result of a true miss like this one.  What it will do, however, is continue to output a true and accurate probability based on past data.  I suspect many analysts will over compensate once again, and curl up into a conservative, pessimistic fetal position, spewing gloom and doom, “this is the end of Apple”, rhetoric.  OK, maybe not to that extreme.  But I’m sure you understand my point.  Get ready for it.  It’s coming.  Rest assured, however, that the Earnings Beat model will be immune to all that, and continue the pure math of what the statistics actually support for the probabilities going forward.

I will update the Earnings Beat chart shortly.