The measure of the probability of an earnings beat this October by Apple has taken a small dive, dropping from 97% to 95%. That may not sound like much, but it actually nearly doubles the probability of a miss. Why has this happened? It’s due to the recent announcement this week of the new iPhone. That caused many analysts to raise their earnings estimates, by a relatively hefty 5% on average. If over the next couple weeks there is positive news of pre-orders and a strong iPhone launch, watch for additional upward revisions of analyst earnings estimates.