Jul 212012

On Friday, Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi lowered most of his estimates for Apple this quarter, saying:

We see a reasonable probability that Apple will miss consensus revenue expectations due to macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe, a product cycle lull in the iPhone, a later than expected introduction of the new iPad into China, and the late quarter introduction of new Mac notebooks.

I created a modified version of the Earnings Beat Model to come up with a probability of a revenue beat.  I wanted to know if I should really be concerned considering where analysts currently have their estimates.  The answer:

88% Probability Apple Beats on Revenue

I consider that a reasonable probability of a revenue beat, not a reasonable probability of a revenue miss!